MDDB Consensus Mock Draft Accuracy
The NFL Mock Draft Database ↗ aggregates hundreds of mock drafts into a single consensus pick for each slot. Below is how that consensus has scored each year using Huddle Report scoring (1 pt R1 player + 2 pts exact team match, max 3 per pick, 96 pts/yr).
How Scoring Works
Each of the 32 first-round picks is scored individually:
- 3 points — Player predicted to the exact correct team (1 pt R1 + 2 pts team match)
- 1 point — Player was drafted in Round 1 but by a different team
- 0 points — Player was not drafted in Round 1 at all
Maximum possible score: 96 points (32 picks × 3 pts).
Data Sources
How the Consensus Mock Draft Compares to Individual Analysts
The MDDB consensus mock is built by aggregating the most common pick at each slot across hundreds of analyst mock drafts. In theory, the "wisdom of the crowd" should outperform most individual analysts — and the data largely supports this. Across 2021–2025, the consensus mock consistently ranks in the upper tier of the accuracy leaderboard, though a handful of individual analysts beat it in any given year.
The consensus mock's strength lies in avoiding catastrophic misses — by definition, it won't include fringe players that only one or two analysts project into Round 1. Its weakness is predictability: it struggles to anticipate draft-day trades and late-rising prospects that a single analyst with inside information might nail.
To see how specific analysts score relative to the consensus, explore the analyst profile pages linked from the leaderboard. For big-picture consensus accuracy data, see the consensus big board accuracy breakdown (86.3% of top-32 prospects go in Round 1).