MDDB Consensus Big Board Accuracy
The MDDB consensus big board aggregates rankings from dozens of analysts. On average, 26.6 of the top 32 prospects land in Round 1 — a 83.1% hit rate over 2021–2025.
2021
26/32 (81%)
2022
▲ +228/32 (88%)
2023
▼ -226/32 (81%)
2024
→ same26/32 (81%)
2025
▲ +127/32 (84%)
5-Year Avg: 26.6/32 board prospects drafted in R1. Best: 2022 (28/32). Worst: 2024 (26/32).
Methodology
"Accuracy" = of the 32 players ranked in the MDDB consensus top 32, how many were actually selected with picks 1–32 on draft day. The board is typically finalized in the week before the draft. 2023 uses 31 R1 picks (Miami forfeited their first-rounder as a tampering penalty). Data sourced from MDDB, ESPN, NFL.com, and Wikipedia draft recaps.